Growth of Flexible AMOLED Market in 2017 Ultra HD Is the Future Development Direction

2.4k TV: about to cross the threshold of popularity

1. The flexible AMOLED market tripled to US $12 billion in 2017;

2.4k TV: about to cross the threshold of popularization;

3. Three high generation lines have successively mass produced LCD panels, and the price has entered a new downward cycle?

4. Semiconductor enters the accelerated production period, and the attraction of two stocks continues to rise!

5. One LED plant, with an annual output of 30 million tons;

1. The flexible AMOLED market tripled to US $12 billion in 2017;

According to the reporter's news, according to the statistics of IHS, due to the sudden increase in demand, the shipping revenue of flexible AMOLED displays increased more than three times in 2017, accounting for 54.6% of the shipping revenue of AMOLED panels.

The flexible AMOLED panel market expanded by about 250% from US $3.5 billion in 2016 to US $12 billion in 2017, while the shipment of rigid AMOLED panels shrank by 14% in the same period. Samsung display began to supply flexible AMOLED display for iPhone X in the third quarter of 2017, which greatly promoted the increase of overall operating revenue. LGD, BOE and Kunshan vicino also began to produce flexible AMOLED panels for smart phones and smart watches in 2017, contributing to market growth.

"High end smartphone brands have increasingly applied flexible AMOLED panels to carry out the unique design of their products," said Jerry Kang, chief senior analyst of IHS Markit. "The number of suppliers of flexible AMOLED panels is also increasing, but the supply capacity is still concentrated in the hands of Samsung display."

According to the latest report of HS Markit, the demand for flexible AMOLED in 2018 is not expected to grow as fast as the supply. "To overcome the potential oversupply to some extent, many panel manufacturers are developing various innovative product forms, such as folding or crimping, in the next few years," Kang said.

2.4k TV: about to cross the threshold of popularity

In the past two years, with the development of Internet, broadband and big data, the outlet of digital economy has gradually opened. As the focus of family digital economy, 4K UHD TV is being re recognized, and 4K TV has really entered the golden age of development. According to the data, the market penetration rate of 4K TV in China reached 58% in 2017. It is generally believed that when the penetration rate of 4K TV is more than 60%, it will reach the popularization level.

4K TV penetration will exceed 60%

According to the data of China electronic video industry association, the market penetration of 4K TV in China increased year by year from 2% in 2013 to 58% in 2017. These five years are the five years with the fastest growth rate of 4K TV. After 2017, the growth rate of 4K TV penetration will gradually slow down to 71% by 2020. The industry generally believes that when the 4K TV penetration rate is more than 60%, it will reach the penetration level.

The development speed of 4K TV in the world is not as fast as that in the Chinese market. According to Qunzhi consulting data, the global shipment ratio of UD TV (ultra high definition TV) was 12.9% in 2015 and 35.3% in 2017. According to the forecast data, the global penetration rate of 4K TV will rise to more than 40% in 2018.

Cui Jilong, an analyst at ovicloud.com, believes that the reason why the Chinese market develops faster than the global market is that Chinese consumers are more willing to try products with new technologies. 4K TV is clearer than 2K TV in display effect. For consumers who pursue image quality effect, they have a stronger willingness to buy 4K TV.

Peng Xiandong, general manager of zhongyikang black power, said that the upsurge of LCD TV replacing CRT TV around 2010 has passed for seven or eight years. Now, when another rotation tide comes, consumers recognize the trend of TV display technology towards higher resolution. Therefore, when buying a new machine, they will naturally choose a new TV with higher resolution, such as 4K TV. Although the current supply of 4K TV programs and film and television dramas in the past five years is far less abundant than expected, and 4K TV has also been criticized by many people as having no 4K film source to watch, from a technical point of view, even for standard definition, HD programs or film sources, the effect of watching with 4K TV is clearer than that of 2K TV.

In fact, the upstream panel industry has a stronger driving force to promote TV to the 4K era. The panel accounts for 67% of the total cost of the TV. In the past few years, the production capacity of generation 8.5 LCD panel production line has expanded rapidly, the shipment of large-size 4K panel has increased rapidly, and the cost price is also declining. The selling price of 4K TV has dropped to a level acceptable to consumers, which further drives the sales of 4K TV in the terminal market. According to the data provided by Qunzhi consulting, the price of 55 inch 4K panel in the first quarter of 2015 was $286, and by the fourth quarter of 2017, the price fell by more than $100 to $174.

On the side of complete machine manufacturers, although the TV industry is driven by display technology, TV manufacturers are also very happy to see the increase of 4K TV sales. 4K TV is usually equipped with a large screen of more than 50 inches. The larger the screen, the higher the TV price, and the higher the profit of the manufacturer. Compared with white TV, the profit margin of color TV manufacturers has decreased year by year. In the first half of 2017, due to the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials and key components, the net profit margin of China's TV industry was less than 1%, and many enterprises were in a state of negative performance growth. 4K large screen TV is one of the directions for TV manufacturers to transform and upgrade to medium and high-end. Returning to the large screen UHD market has increasingly become the main theme. The penetration rate of 4K TV of major brands is increasing. According to ovicloud, Skyworth 4K TV has a penetration rate of 56%, and Changhong and Konka 4K TV have a penetration rate of more than 50%.

Ultra HD is the future development direction

It should be noted that although the penetration rate of 4K TV is close to 60%, which is at the popularization level, the penetration rate of 4K TV of different sizes varies greatly. There are relatively few small and medium-sized 4K TVs, with a penetration rate of less than 30%. The penetration rate of 49 inch 55 inch 4K TV generally exceeds 60%. The penetration rate of 4K TV above 55 inches is more than 80%. The larger the size, the higher the permeability; The smaller the size, the weaker the sense of existence of 4K.

Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi consulting, told reporters that there are basically no 4K TVs below 40 inches, and the penetration rate of 4K TVs above 49 inches has reached more than 80%, which is basically saturated in this market. In the future, 4K TV will further penetrate into small and medium-sized sizes, while the space to penetrate into large sizes above 55 inches is limited, and there will be great pressure for further development. Moreover, Peng Xiandong pointed out that on small and medium-sized TVs of 40 inches or less, considering the factor of the best viewing distance of the human eye, the presentation effect of 2k and 4K TVs is not different for consumers. Therefore, it is not necessary to make 4K resolution on TVS of 40 inches or less.

The voice of 4K TV upgrading to 8K TV has become higher and higher in recent months. According to the forecast data, by 2020, the market penetration rate of 8K TVs above 65 inches will reach about 10%. At present, only sharp has launched a 70 inch 8K consumer TV on the market. Generally speaking, 8K TV is one of the development directions of TV in the future, but 4K TV will still be the mainstream in the next 3 5 years.

On 55 inch TVs, similar to the situation encountered by TVS below 40 inches, 8K display effect and 4K display effect are not much different for consumers. Moreover, in order to achieve 8K display effect, panel technology, manufacturing process and display technology determine that it is economical to produce only products above 65 inches. Therefore, 65 inches is the starting size of 8K TV. In the next five years, the market share of 65 inch TV is only 10% 15%, which can not become the mainstream of the market. Han Xuewen, senior product manager of Hisense, told reporters that the development of 8K TV will not be as rapid as that of 4K TV replacing 2K TV. 4K TV will be the mainstream for a long time.

4K TV reshapes the industry ecological chain

For a long time, the evolution of TV industry is driven by display technology, and hardware is the part that reflects the main value of color TV products. As mentioned above, the screen accounts for 60% or 70% of the cost in the TV price. Most of the advantages and disadvantages of the screen determine the advantages and disadvantages of the TV products. The evolution of screen technology has brought development dividends to the TV industry, but the impact of relying too much on screen is becoming more and more prominent in the current color TV industry.

The consulting agency estimates that in 2017, the annual profit of the world's six major LCD panel factories will reach US $14 billion to US $15 billion, close to RMB 100 billion. In the same period, the profit of the whole color TV industry was less than 2 billion yuan. In the past five years, the profit margin of China's six color TV enterprises has continued to decline from 3% and has been at a low level. Recovering profits is an important topic for color TV enterprises.

In the past, color TV enterprises held the thinking of "hardware is the king" and made profits entirely by relying on the quality and differentiation of TV products. The entry of Internet enterprises into the TV industry has brought new thinking of "content is king" to TV manufacturers and universal education to consumers. Whether it is hardware or content, TV manufacturers are increasingly aware of the ultimate orientation of "experience is king", which also brings them new profit direction. 4K TV is a very good opportunity.

4K TV is also a smart TV. Smart TV is considered to be an extremely important export for the transformation and upgrading of the color TV industry and the reconstruction of the ecological chain. In the era of intelligence, TV manufacturers create new profit models with intelligent operating systems and intelligent applications. Ma Songlin, vice president of TCL Industrial Research Institute, once revealed that most of the energy of color TV manufacturers has turned to doing a large number of Internet applications rather than hardware. Li Yaqin told reporters that today, TV manufacturers have expanded their vision to connect with IOT terminals, and intelligent operation and interconnection with other intelligent devices have become particularly important.

Content is not what TV manufacturers are good at. However, 4K content is an indispensable part of providing users with a complete 4K experience. One of the directions of "non hardware profit model" sought by TV manufacturers is the user operation and content profit model.

For example, TCL and Tencent cooperate to provide Internet Film and television content, and Haier TV and Ali cooperate to provide 4K content. Zhan Jiawei, senior manager of TCL's operation management department, told reporters that for every 4K TV sold, as long as users consume the content on the TV, brand TV manufacturers will share the content. The popularity of 4K TV can accelerate the promotion of the mode of generating revenue from content, and 4K based home entertainment can also stimulate more cross-border and innovation related to content. Moreover, the larger the screen and HD TV, the more benefits brought by data consumption can be reflected. Because when every household uses 4K smart TV, the range of data circulation will be larger and larger, and the new business format and intelligent innovation based on data will bring a better future.

Last year, Guangdong Province issued preferential policies to encourage the development of 4K industrial chain to accelerate the popularization of 4K industry. According to internal sources, the Guangdong government will give corresponding subsidies to manufacturers and sellers of color TV sets in Guangdong Province. Although the amount is not large, its guiding role is obvious. Wu Wei, chief engineer of Skyworth Group Co., Ltd., believes that color TV enterprises are undergoing transformation, and Guangdong's support for 4K industrial chain is timely, which will provide a continuous driving force for the future development of enterprises.