Will the Energy Storage Market Rise next Year? I Think It's Hanging
This morning, the old generation saw an article in the circle of friends saying that "in its latest report on tracking and studying China's coal-fired power plants, Greenpeace warned that China would waste 900 billion yuan ($134.6 billion) in capital expenditure on power plants that have been approved for construction although they will exacerbate excess power generation capacity . the economic slowdown, coupled with the intensive investment in coal, hydropower, wind and solar power generation capacity in the past few years, has depressed the utilization rate of China's power plants, especially coal-fired power plants and wind farms. "According to the report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2015, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment of power plants with 6000 kW and above was 3969 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 349 hours. According to this data, in 2012, our utilization hours were basically higher than 5000 hours. In other words, our current thermal power capacity has at least 20% - 30% room for improvement.
On the one hand is the surplus of thermal power generation capacity, on the other hand is the continuous expansion of thermal power. The reasons behind this are, on the one hand, the interest game of various local governments, and on the other hand, the unwillingness of enterprises in the thermal power department to be physically eliminated. Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric and Harbin electric are known as the "three swordsmen" in the field of domestic electrical equipment manufacturing. Among them, Dongfang Electric Group and Harbin Electric Group are directly managed by the SASAC of the State Council. Shanghai Electric Group is a subordinate enterprise of Shanghai SASAC. Due to the rapid development of photovoltaic and wind energy in recent years, the net profit of Dongfang Electric fell from 2.35 billion in 2013 to about 50 million this year. As a difficult brother of Dongfang Electric, the net profit of Harbin Electric fell from 1.3 billion yuan in 2014 to about 60 million yuan in 2015. With the current decline, the two companies controlled by SASAC will soon have negative profits. In order to avoid the price war in the thermal power market, the main principals of Dongfang Electric Group and Harbin Electric Group, one of the three giants of domestic power generation equipment, were transferred on May 25 this year. Personally, in order to protect the son of SASAC, extreme thermal power construction reduction plan is certainly not allowed.
Another news, Guangzhou, June 3 (Wang Hua, Gong Dian) - recently, the continuous high temperature weather in Guangzhou continued to release the cooling load of air conditioning. The unified regulation load of Guangzhou Power Grid exceeded 15 million KW for the first time on June 3, breaking the historical maximum load record twice. Guangzhou Power Supply Department predicts that the overall power supply situation of Guangzhou power grid in 2016 is relatively stable, and there is no power load gap. However, due to the impact of partial sections and heavy equipment overload, there may still be a small number of Local Network Limited peak staggering problems during peak load. It is reported that within five years, Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau plans to invest 34 billion yuan in power grid construction and plans to build 66 more substations.
According to the Convention, since the load has reached a new high, it is necessary to upgrade and transform the network to meet the existence of the next power consumption peak. However, the muggy weather lasts only two or three months a year, and the peak load time does not exceed 100 hours. For this 100 hour peak load, the energy storage system can bear and absorb it, play the role of peak shaving, and charge at night to improve the utilization efficiency of thermal power. Technically feasible, but difficult to achieve in practice. Taking Guangzhou as an example, the 34 billion power grid construction in the next five years will benefit companies selling cables, transformers, relay protection, switches and engineering, and most of the national teams Nanrui, Xuji, Xidian and Pinggao will make a lot of money. If alternative energy storage technologies are adopted, most of the current power grid companies will lose their jobs or their profits will decline sharply.
The old generation commented in the circle of friends: on the one hand, the operating rate of thermal power plants is insufficient, on the other hand, there is a continuous investment of 900 billion to build new thermal power plants. This is the so-called supply side reform? Putting these investments into the energy storage system not only solves the problem of abandoning wind and light, improves the utilization rate of thermal power plant, but also avoids excessive investment in power grid. Such a good thing is not done because the energy storage system is done by losers and has no right to speak.
Li Weichun of TUV Rhine believes that those who do energy storage are not losers, but advanced elements with strategic vision. China has sunshine power, Trina Solar energy storage, GCL and BYD, Japan and South Korea have Panasonic, Samsung and LG, and Europe and America have BMW, Mercedes Benz and Tesla. Different markets, different applications and different strategies. President Li may have misinterpreted what I mean. In front of the SASAC's own sons Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, and NARI hepinggao, the holding company of State Grid, what are these big companies in the world?
The start-up of the energy storage market is not a technical problem, but a struggle between different technical routes and the interests of the company. Many companies, both players and referees, are doomed to a tortuous and long development path of the energy storage market. Moreover, there are many policy risks. The calculation methods of many energy storage companies are based on the peak valley price difference of the power grid. The power grid company adjusted the price difference that day, and the whole energy storage industry will collapse. The energy storage market will rise next year, I think.
I hope you can leave a message in the comments, brainstorm and share your views on the energy storage market. Thank you.
